Groundswell's Call: Performers And Pretenders
(Thursday, May 13, 2010)
Performers And Pretenders
For years, many viewers, fans, and people in the fold have said that the ASP world tour was a bit bloated with 45 full-time surfers on tour. Events typically took at least 4 days to complete, and even after the first round of eliminations, there were still 32 surfers in the mix. So last year, the surfers and the ASP sat down and thought up a way to improve things for 2010. The result was what we're all eagerly anticipating after Tahiti - a cut down to 32 full-time surfers on tour. This shortened the event running time by a full day, and with the modified "Slater Heats" running, (an option for each event), we could possibly see an event completed in less time than that.
But before we get to this whittled-down version of the tour, we first have to battle through the first 5 events of the year. The current Top 45 are looking at the looming cut-down to 32 surfers prior to the Hurley Pro at Trestles. Some of the elite are pretty safe at the moment, but there are definitely a few surprises at the bottom of the ratings. Should trends continue, the tour will see a few big names left off the Top 32 list when the bottom 13 seeds are dropped.
So with three events down and a two month lay-off on the men's side right now, we figured now was a great time to take a good look at just who is living up to the hype, and who is under-performing. Obviously our look here is not meant as any sign of dis-respect towards any of the surfers, just a healthy look under the microscope.
Let's have a look:
SAFE BET: Kelly Slater - Kelly (pictured above) is just starting to pick up speed, and it couldn't come at a worse time for everyone else on tour. J-Bay, Tahiti and Trestles are the next three stops on tour, and they are also the place where some of Kelly's most dominating performances have come over the years. Sitting at the top of the ratings is old hat to Slater, so he's going to be as comfortable as ever. PREDICTION: The favorite to win the 2010 world title at this point. It's been proven time and time again that betting against Slater is really not a wise idea.
OVER ACHIEVER: Jadson Andre - Who knew that this rookie would have his first win under his belt as well as a 4th round appearance at Bells. The conditions were perfect for him in Brazil, and he took full advantage of them. This is pretty much the easiest pick on our list. PREDICTION: Andre will make the cut, but some of the bigger wave venues could prove tricky.
LYING DORMANT: Andy Irons - The three-time champ is back on tour, and so far the results have been pretty mixed. He's still sitting above the cut-off line at the moment, but many were hoping he would be in a much better place at this point in the year. But really, we shouldn't have expected more than this three events into the year. Irons had quite a long layoff since 2009's year off. Some would even argue that he took even more time off than that with his dis-interest in the last half of 2008 as well. But of all the surfers on this list, Irons has possibly the most upside. He's got a lot of experience to draw upon at each stop on the tour, and his surfing at the recent Nike 6.0 event at Trestles showed that he can still swing it with the big boys. PREDICTION: Top 15 by the end of the year. Could crush a few dreams for other surfers at Tahiti.
WHAT HAPPENED?: Dean Morrison - The Coolangatta trio of Mick Fanning, Joel Parkinson, and Dean Morrison is no longer. Sure they're all still friends, they're all grown up now, and they're all working on their own families. But while Mick and Joel have continued their upward trajectory towards the top of the ratings, Dingo has had a pretty rough go of things for the past few years. It wasn't long ago that Dean had Slater's number in waves of consequence and was taking out top seeds en route to solid results. But times they are a changing. With the rise of a new generation of surfers on tour, Dean has been pushed aside and isn't really looking as stellar as he once did. Two 33rds and a 17th this year have put Dean at the very edge of being off tour. PREDICTION: Barring a minor miracle, this will be the last time we see Morrison at the WCT level for a while. He currently doesn't have any solid results in the Prime qualifying events, and that means he's got an uphill battle ahead of him no matter how he looks at it.
THE HYPE MACHINE WAS RIGHT: Jordy Smith - A few years ago, the industry was throwing money at this guy left and right. Everyone was betting heavy that he was going to be a consistent world title contender for years to come. Well, it's starting to look like they were all correct. Smith currently sits 2nd in the ratings and is looking like it's all starting to click for him. What that means is you'd better start getting used to seeing his name at the top of the ratings; he'll challenge Slater this year and continue to be up there with Fanning and Parkinson for the near future. PREDICTION: Once he wins his first event, the seal will be broken and there will be no stopping him.
NOT SO FAST: Taj Burrow
At the beginning of the year, Taj Burrow was on a hot streak that was similar to Mick Fanning's world title winning runs. Unfortunately for Taj, this run was at the end of the year in 2009 when the title was already out of reach, and it continued into the 2010 year before he cooled off a bit. Yes, the Brazil event was a disappointment for Burrow - but honestly, it's been quite some time since he's dominated Brazil the way many remember. An honest assessment of Taj in 2010 would be that he's performed well where we didn't expect him to, and suffered a letdown where he used to dominate. He's still lurking behind Slater, but he needs to recapture that magic he had. PREDICTION: Top 5 seems almost certain, but world title consistency could still be just out of reach. He'll be right there for the title hunt as usual.
ON THE RISE: Roy Powers - For several years, Powers has been right there on the bubble of failing to re-qualify and dropping off tour. He'll be consistent for an event or two and then have a skid that perplexes everyone watching him. He stumbled a little bit at the beginning of this year, and recovered in the next two events to put him squarely in the middle of the pack. But J-bay and Tahiti are on the horizon, and Powers has a history of being at bit of a dark horse at those two events. PREDICTION: Safely in the Top 32 for the 2nd half of 2010.
(Thursday, May 13, 2010)
Performers And Pretenders
For years, many viewers, fans, and people in the fold have said that the ASP world tour was a bit bloated with 45 full-time surfers on tour. Events typically took at least 4 days to complete, and even after the first round of eliminations, there were still 32 surfers in the mix. So last year, the surfers and the ASP sat down and thought up a way to improve things for 2010. The result was what we're all eagerly anticipating after Tahiti - a cut down to 32 full-time surfers on tour. This shortened the event running time by a full day, and with the modified "Slater Heats" running, (an option for each event), we could possibly see an event completed in less time than that.
But before we get to this whittled-down version of the tour, we first have to battle through the first 5 events of the year. The current Top 45 are looking at the looming cut-down to 32 surfers prior to the Hurley Pro at Trestles. Some of the elite are pretty safe at the moment, but there are definitely a few surprises at the bottom of the ratings. Should trends continue, the tour will see a few big names left off the Top 32 list when the bottom 13 seeds are dropped.
So with three events down and a two month lay-off on the men's side right now, we figured now was a great time to take a good look at just who is living up to the hype, and who is under-performing. Obviously our look here is not meant as any sign of dis-respect towards any of the surfers, just a healthy look under the microscope.
Let's have a look:
SAFE BET: Kelly Slater - Kelly (pictured above) is just starting to pick up speed, and it couldn't come at a worse time for everyone else on tour. J-Bay, Tahiti and Trestles are the next three stops on tour, and they are also the place where some of Kelly's most dominating performances have come over the years. Sitting at the top of the ratings is old hat to Slater, so he's going to be as comfortable as ever. PREDICTION: The favorite to win the 2010 world title at this point. It's been proven time and time again that betting against Slater is really not a wise idea.
OVER ACHIEVER: Jadson Andre - Who knew that this rookie would have his first win under his belt as well as a 4th round appearance at Bells. The conditions were perfect for him in Brazil, and he took full advantage of them. This is pretty much the easiest pick on our list. PREDICTION: Andre will make the cut, but some of the bigger wave venues could prove tricky.
LYING DORMANT: Andy Irons - The three-time champ is back on tour, and so far the results have been pretty mixed. He's still sitting above the cut-off line at the moment, but many were hoping he would be in a much better place at this point in the year. But really, we shouldn't have expected more than this three events into the year. Irons had quite a long layoff since 2009's year off. Some would even argue that he took even more time off than that with his dis-interest in the last half of 2008 as well. But of all the surfers on this list, Irons has possibly the most upside. He's got a lot of experience to draw upon at each stop on the tour, and his surfing at the recent Nike 6.0 event at Trestles showed that he can still swing it with the big boys. PREDICTION: Top 15 by the end of the year. Could crush a few dreams for other surfers at Tahiti.
WHAT HAPPENED?: Dean Morrison - The Coolangatta trio of Mick Fanning, Joel Parkinson, and Dean Morrison is no longer. Sure they're all still friends, they're all grown up now, and they're all working on their own families. But while Mick and Joel have continued their upward trajectory towards the top of the ratings, Dingo has had a pretty rough go of things for the past few years. It wasn't long ago that Dean had Slater's number in waves of consequence and was taking out top seeds en route to solid results. But times they are a changing. With the rise of a new generation of surfers on tour, Dean has been pushed aside and isn't really looking as stellar as he once did. Two 33rds and a 17th this year have put Dean at the very edge of being off tour. PREDICTION: Barring a minor miracle, this will be the last time we see Morrison at the WCT level for a while. He currently doesn't have any solid results in the Prime qualifying events, and that means he's got an uphill battle ahead of him no matter how he looks at it.
THE HYPE MACHINE WAS RIGHT: Jordy Smith - A few years ago, the industry was throwing money at this guy left and right. Everyone was betting heavy that he was going to be a consistent world title contender for years to come. Well, it's starting to look like they were all correct. Smith currently sits 2nd in the ratings and is looking like it's all starting to click for him. What that means is you'd better start getting used to seeing his name at the top of the ratings; he'll challenge Slater this year and continue to be up there with Fanning and Parkinson for the near future. PREDICTION: Once he wins his first event, the seal will be broken and there will be no stopping him.
NOT SO FAST: Taj Burrow
At the beginning of the year, Taj Burrow was on a hot streak that was similar to Mick Fanning's world title winning runs. Unfortunately for Taj, this run was at the end of the year in 2009 when the title was already out of reach, and it continued into the 2010 year before he cooled off a bit. Yes, the Brazil event was a disappointment for Burrow - but honestly, it's been quite some time since he's dominated Brazil the way many remember. An honest assessment of Taj in 2010 would be that he's performed well where we didn't expect him to, and suffered a letdown where he used to dominate. He's still lurking behind Slater, but he needs to recapture that magic he had. PREDICTION: Top 5 seems almost certain, but world title consistency could still be just out of reach. He'll be right there for the title hunt as usual.
ON THE RISE: Roy Powers - For several years, Powers has been right there on the bubble of failing to re-qualify and dropping off tour. He'll be consistent for an event or two and then have a skid that perplexes everyone watching him. He stumbled a little bit at the beginning of this year, and recovered in the next two events to put him squarely in the middle of the pack. But J-bay and Tahiti are on the horizon, and Powers has a history of being at bit of a dark horse at those two events. PREDICTION: Safely in the Top 32 for the 2nd half of 2010.
